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Thursday, November 5, 2020

What you need to know about the four undecided swing states - POLITICO

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Joe Biden is on the cusp of winning the 2020 presidential election, with President Donald Trump needing to win every remaining uncalled battleground state in order to get a second term.

Biden has earned 264 electoral votes so far — but there are narrow margins in four remaining uncalled states that stand between him and an Electoral College win. That's the calculus that served as the backdrop for Trump’s speech in the early hours of Wednesday morning, in which he falsely claimed victory and asserted that the election would be stolen from him. Pointing to his lead in the votes cast on Election Day in several states, he described a fanciful scenario in which he claimed to have clearly won Georgia and North Carolina — two states that remained uncalled with more than 90 percent of estimated votes reported — and said he was winning Pennsylvania by so many votes that “it is going to be almost impossible to catch.”

Trump also suggested that the as-yet-uncounted votes would be favorable to him, a statement which seems unlikely since the a large portion of them are from some of the state’s bluest and most populous places — like Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County, suburban Philadelphia’s Montgomery County and Philadelphia itself. And even in places that are leaning toward Trump, the people who voted by mail are backing Biden.

Trump's campaign has also announced that it will seek a recount in Wisconsin, where the race was called Wednesday afternoon. With four states still to be called, here is the state of play of the outstanding votes in each of them.

Pennsylvania (Trump 50.5, Biden 48.4)

In Pennsylvania, roughly 87 percent of the expected vote has been tallied, but more than 760,000 outstanding mail ballots were left to be counted as of 10 a.m. Eastern Time Thursday morning. As the state counted more mail ballots into Thursday morning, Trump's margin shrank from about 13 points early on Wednesday to just over 2 percentage points as of 10 a.m.

Election workers in Philadelphia said they are working around the clock to count ballots. As of 10 a.m., a tracker from the Pennsylvania Department of State showed that roughly 71 percent of mail ballots across the state have been counted and reported to the department. More than 700,000 mail ballots remained uncounted at that time, including more than 120,000 in Philadelphia and nearly 46,000 in Allegheny County, where Pittsburgh is located.

Biden’s campaign told reporters that they expect all the mail ballots in Philadelphia to be counted by the end of Thursday or Friday. But elected officials in the city declined to give an exact timetable for when they would be finished.

“We’re doing the best we can to get that count done as soon as possible and it’s going to be accurate,” said Philadelphia City Commissioner Lisa Deeley.

In Pennsylvania, ballots that are postmarked by Election Day and received within three days can also be counted. A Republican Supreme Court challenge, which looks to toss ballots received after Election Day, is still pending. The Trump campaign announced it would seek to intervene in the case, along with filing a new suit to temporarily halt the count in the state.

Georgia (Trump 49.6, Biden 49.2)

The bulk of the expected vote has already been counted in Georgia — 99 percent. But some of the most populous suburban counties around Atlanta — and Atlanta’s Fulton County itself — have thousands of votes still uncounted, and Trump's lead continues to shrink.

There are around 61,000 outstanding absentee ballots in the entire state, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office, with many of those coming from populous and Democratic-leaning counties.

Though Fulton County’s elections head had pledged Wednesday night to finish tallying the remaining ballots overnight, more than 11,000 absentee ballots remain with more results expected around 11 a.m., per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger has said that he expects a full count of the state by noon Thursday.

Chatham County, where Savannah is located and where the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit Wednesday evening, has about 17,000 absentee ballots that have not yet been counted.

Some of the tallying in Fulton County was delayed after a pipe burst at a ballot processing site. Election officials said no ballots were damaged.

North Carolina (Trump 50.1, Biden 48.7)

North Carolina had been among the uncalled swing states furthest along in counting by Wednesday morning, with around 95 percent of the estimated vote total already in.

But the head of the state board of elections said that the results from the outstanding 117,000 absentee ballots will likely not be posted until next week, meaning North Carolina could remain uncalled until then. Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day can arrive by Nov. 12 and still count under North Carolina's current rules.

Trump has a narrow lead over Biden, but many of the big Democratic areas of the state have counted the vast majority of their ballots.

Nevada (Biden 49.3, Trump 48.7)

In Nevada, 75 percent of estimated votes have been reported, with state authorities planning to release another tranche of results at around noon Eastern.

The state election office said all in-person early votes, all in-person Election Day votes and all mail ballots through Nov. 2 have been counted.

Mail ballots received on Election Day, mail ballots that will be received over the next week and provisional ballots remain to be counted. “Ballots outstanding is difficult to estimate in Nevada because every voter was sent a mail ballot. Obviously, not all will vote,” the state board of elections tweeted.

Caitlin Oprysko contributed to this report.

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What you need to know about the four undecided swing states - POLITICO
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