1. Air raid
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback (and Ohio native) Ben Roethlisberger is 24-2-1 in his career against the Cleveland Browns, including 13-0 at Heinz Field. There is reason to believe he can add to that total during Sunday night’s playoff game, based on some of the statistics surrounding the Cleveland pass defense.
The raw numbers have the Browns at 22nd in the NFL in pass defense at 247.6 yards per game. They are 25th in passing touchdowns against (31). Only one playoff team (the Tennessee Titans) has allowed more.
Using heavier analytics, the Browns’ pass defense is 20th by Pro Football Focus in its subjective grading. Football Outsiders’ metric-based rankings (adjusted value over average) pegged the Browns at 25th in pass defense.
The Browns, too, offer tonic for the Steelers’ on-again, off-again deep passing game. According to the Next Gen Stats passing charts, Roethlisberger was 3 for 3 on passes more than 20 yards downfield in the first matchup with the Browns on Oct. 17. Eleven weeks later, Mason Rudolph took it a step deeper, going 4 of 7 on passes that went at least 29 yards downfield in the rematch with Cleveland.
The Browns allowed the third-most receiving yards (2,805) and second-most receiving touchdowns (20) among playoff teams this season. And they are without two of their top cornerbacks, Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson (covid list).
2. Shallow vs. Steelers
The other quarterback in Sunday’s game, Baker Mayfield, is the only qualifying quarterback who has completed at least half of his attempts to targets 20-plus yards downfield. Per PFF, Mayfield is 28 for 56 on such throws.
Despite the success, Mayfield was reluctant to throw deep against the Steelers. In two games against them, just three of his 45 throws were to targets 20 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Perhaps part of that was a desire to neutralize the Steelers’ vaunted pass rush.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Mayfield held on to the ball the second-longest with an average time of snap to release of 3.05 seconds. But last week against the Steelers, Mayfield held onto the ball a season-low 2.67 seconds before each attempt.
3.Going big
In this season’s first meeting against the Steelers, the Browns sent out a fullback for the first snap of the game. When they met again last week, Cleveland went with two tight ends.
That’s not a coincidence or a matchup specific to the Steelers. According to sharpfootballstats.com, the Browns used an offensive personnel group involving three wide receivers only 42% of the time this season. That “11” personnel (one running back, one tight end) has become the standard for the modern pro game, with 60% usage league-wide. Only two teams used it less often than Cleveland.
Does going against a team that has a relative lack of WR deployment benefit the Steelers? They are, after all, without their top outside cornerback (Joe Haden, covid-19). And according to pro-football-reference.com, no team in the NFL allowed fewer combined catches (115) or receiving yards (980) to tight ends and running backs than the Steelers.
4. No-hi-o
It was during the divisional round of the 1989 season when Bernie Kosar (3 TD passes) outdueled Jim Kelly (4 TD passes, two interceptions) to earn Cleveland a trip to its third AFC title game in four years. (As an aside, that AFC championship would have been against the Steelers had John Elway not led a late comeback against them in Denver that same divisional weekend).
Since then, the Browns’ only postseason appearances were in 1994 and 2002. They lost to the Steelers each time: in the divisional round of 1994 and in a wild-card game eight years later.
Extending this to the rest of the Buckeye State, NFL teams from Ohio have not had a playoff win since the 1990 season. The Cincinnati Bengals beat the Houston Oilers in a wild-card game that January, but they have lost all seven playoff games since.
It’s descriptive to all three franchise’s historic fates to point out that over a span of 18 seasons starting in 1991 any time either of Ohio’s NFL teams made the playoffs they were eliminated by their rivals, the Steelers. Finally, in 2009, the Bengals lost not to the Steelers but to the New York Jets in a wild-card game.
Hey, Steelers Nation, get the latest news about the Pittsburgh Steelers here.
Chris Adamski is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Chris by email at cadamski@triblive.com or via Twitter .
Categories: Sports | Steelers/NFL
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