Five teams with the easiest paths to the 2021 Final Four originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington
The path to postseason glory in March is never easy. It's important to admit that right off the bat.
But at the same time, one of the tried and true pastimes of college basketball fans every Selection Sunday is to look through the NCAA Tournament bracket and pick out which teams appear to have easier paths than others.
And it is true that some draws are more favorable than others. Nothing is guaranteed, of course. Decades of memorable, historic upsets have taught fans that. But it's still telling to look through each region and figure out who probably has a more manageable run ahead of them come tournament time.
Below are the five teams with the best paths ahead of them. For the sake of variety, the list is limited to just two one-seeds, which generally have earned the easiest paths by design.
Gonzaga
Of course Gonzaga has the easiest path to the Final Four. They're the only team in their region who doesn't have to play, well, themselves.
The Zags are a heavy favorite to come out of the West region this year. They are the last undefeated team in the country, blitzing just about every contender they came across during the season. Not only do they look like one of the most dominant teams in college basketball history, but they've already proven themselves against the teams currently in their way.
The two, three and four seeds in Gonzaga's bracket have all already played the Zags and lost...each by double figures.
Gonzaga is a buzzsaw, and their region is the easiest of the four. It would be a stunning upset for them not to make the Final Four.
Illinois
Let's get the other one-seed out of the way. Illinois leads the Midwest region, and at first glance they might seem a curious choice to be listed among teams with relatively easy paths to the Final Four.
They were done no favors by the selection committee when it comes to their second round game, where Illinois will face either Georgia Tech (who just won the ACC Tournament) or Loyola-Chicago (a mid-major powerhouse who has been to the Final Four before as a Cinderella and boasts the best defense in the country according to KenPom).
But Illinois should be able to comfortably win its second round game, regardless of who it comes against. And while a Cade Cunningham-Ayo Dosunmu battle would be thrilling in the Sweet Sixteen, Oklahoma State is a step down from Brad Underwood's new team.
What really separates Illinois here is the bottom half of its region. In theory, the most difficult step to making the Final Four comes in the Elite Eight, as any one-seed will likely go up against a strong two or three seed. But that's where the Midwest weakens considerably, as West Virginia is the bracket's worst three-seed and Houston is the worst two-seed.
If Illinois can avoid upsets in the early rounds, its path will actually get easier as the tournament moves along. That's a rarity for a one-seed, and it makes their path easier than others.
Syracuse
For the same reasons as outlined for Illinois, Syracuse could find its path relatively easy. First they face a poor-shooting San Diego State team that might struggle against the Orange's famous 2-3 zone defense. Then they face the same teams that would struggle to give Illinois a fight.
Head coach Jim Boeheim has a reputation for doing his best work in March while a heavy underdog, which Syracuse will be as an 11-seed that many thought might not even make the tournament this season. But their path sets up quite nicely until a potential showdown with juggernaut Illinois in the Elite Eight.
And as mentioned, the Illini's toughest matchups are in the round of 32 and the Sweet Sixteen. If they trip up early -- which is a big "if" -- then Syracuse's path will get a whole lot simpler.
Florida State
The Seminoles are in an interesting position. They were the ACC's consensus best team for most of the season, but they didn't end up with the top seed in the conference tournament, nor did they end up winning it all.
For their efforts, they were rewarded with a four-seed in the East region. That lines them up for a potential Sweet Sixteen showdown with Michigan, a team that looked like perhaps the best in the sport at times this season but who stumbled late and is now without one of their key players in Isaiah Livers.
It's hard to know what to make of the Wolverines, which opens up Florida State's potential path. Even getting to the Sweet Sixteen shouldn't be overly taxing, as five-seed Colorado was largely untested in conference play and is a popular pick to be upset by Big East tournament champion Georgetown.
Florida State's toughest matchup, if it takes down the top-seeded Wolverines, will come in the Elite Eight. There are plenty of typical March magicians in the region, including Tom Izzo's Michigan State and UConn with an elite defense and ball-dominant guard. Alabama won't be a cakewalk either, as the top two seed.
But of all the midrange seeds in this year's bracket, Florida State might have the best chance of chaos among the teams around them, which could make them surprising favorites beyond just the first round.
Ohio State
It's tough to pick a representative from the South region, which is perhaps the strongest on paper. But thankfully for the Buckeyes, the toughest teams are all in the upper half of the region.
Facing Purdue for a fourth time this season would be difficult, but it wouldn't come until the Elite Eight. Baylor looked like the clear second-best team in basketball for most of the year, but they haven't looked the same since their COVID-19 pause. And they, too, wouldn't show up for Ohio State until the Elite Eight.
Chris Beard is an elite postseason coach, but his sixth-seeded Texas Tech team isn't as strong as the 2019 national runners up were. And Arkansas is a talented, fun team, but they don't feel like a true contender this year.
Ohio State was hoping to avoid behemoth Gonzaga or one of the top-seeded Big Ten teams, and that could end up being to their benefit if Baylor continues to struggle defensively compared to what they once were. Pair that with a weaker potential second-round matchup in either Virginia Tech or Florida, and Ohio State's path looks like the easiest in what is otherwise a strong region.
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