Hail, hail, to Michigan, the champions of the…East?
Michigan was announced on Sunday as the No. 1 seed in the East Region of the NCAA men’s basketball Tournament. Reaching the program’s ninth Final Four will require four straight wins, starting on Saturday against a to-be-determined opponent.
Here’s a look at Michigan’s path to the Final Four.
First round
At 5:10 p.m. on Thursday, 16 seeds Texas Southern and Mount St. Mary’s will tip off the 2021 NCAA Tournament as part of the play-in round, dubbed the “First Four” by the NCAA. The winner will advance to face Michigan on Saturday afternoon.
All time, No. 1 seeds are 139-1 against 16 seeds. The lone upset is UMBC over Virginia in 2018. Going back to 1998, just four of the 88 matchups between 1s and 16s have been decided by single digits, according to ESPN.
MLive will provide a closer look at Michigan’s matchup once the opponent is known, but this much is certain now: Michigan should not have any trouble advancing to the second round.
Second round
With a win on Saturday, Michigan would travel from West Lafayette, Indiana, to Indianapolis to face the winner of 8 seed LSU and 9 seed St. Bonaventure. LSU is a 1.5-point favorite against the Bonnies.
LSU (18-9) is led by 6-foot-4 freshman guard Cameron Thomas, who averages 22.6 points per game. The Tigers have the fifth-best offense in the country, per kenpom.com, but ranks just 125th in defense. They lost their only challenging nonconference game, against Saint Louis, and went 11-6 in the SEC, and reached the conference tournament championship.
St. Bonaventure didn’t start its season until Dec. 15 because of COVID-19 issues and played just two nonconference games. The Bonnies (16-4) won the Atlantic-10 regular-season and tournament titles. No player in the NCAA Tournament averaged more minutes per game than point guard Kyle Lofton (38.4).
The 2021 NCAA men's basketball Tournament East Region.
Sweet 16
Florida State, determined by the committee as the best No. 4 seed, will play 13 seed UNC Greensboro in the first round. No. 5 seed Colorado will face 12 seed Georgetown. One of those teams will advance to the Sweet 16.
Florida State (16-6) has a top-10 offense thanks to terrific offensive rebounding and a 39-percent mark from 3. The Seminoles have two common opponents with Michigan. They beat Indiana in overtime and lost to UCF, both at home. Michigan easily handled both teams. Still, Florida State is talented and versatile, best exemplified by 6-foot-9 freshman Scottie Barnes, a potential NBA draft lottery pick this year.
Colorado had won six in a row before getting upset by Oregon State in the Pac-12 Tournament championship. The Buffaloes (22-8) were quietly good this season, led by senior guard McKinley Wright IV. They’ll face a Georgetown team that made plenty of noise in New York last weekend.
The Hoyas, who finished the regular season 9-12 and never won more than two games in a row, won four straight at Madison Square Garden to win the Big East Tournament and clinch an automatic bid to the Big Dance.
Elite Eight
Moving to the bottom half of the East Region means nine teams to consider. There’s 15 seed Iona, coached by Rick Pitino, and 14 seed Abilene Christian, which forces turnovers at the highest rate in the country, shoots the 3 well, and has a 7-foot senior center.
BYU, the 6 seed, comes from a West Coast Conference that featured no other team that got NCAA Tournament consideration -- besides No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga. BYU led Gonzaga by 12 points at halftime of the WCC Tournament championship before the Gonzaga came back to remain undefeated. BYU, which starts former Purdue center Matt Haarms, is a balanced, veteran squad.
Long before potentially meeting Michigan, the Cougars would first have to beat the winner of the play-in game between 11 seeds UCLA and Michigan State. Doing so would set up a likely matchup with 3 seed Texas. The Big 12 was the only league anywhere near as good as the Big Ten this season, and Texas finished 11-6 before winning the league tournament. Texas has veteran guards and talented bigs.
The 7-10 matchup features Connecticut vs. Maryland. Michigan is very familiar with Maryland, having beaten the Terrapins three times this season. Connecticut won it all as a 7 seed in 2014. Could sophomore guard James Bouknight, who had a 40-point game earlier this season, create similar magic?
The selection committee determined Alabama was the top 2 seed and therefore placed the Crimson Tide with Michigan, the weakest 1 seed. Alabama plays as fast as any team in the bracket, shoots a lot of 3s, and also has the second-best defense in the country. Led by Nate Oats, the former Romulus (Michigan) High School coach, Alabama has a real shot at making its first Final Four in program history.
Summary
Juwan Howard is all but guaranteed one win in his first NCAA Tournament as head coach. He’ll be favored to win a second, but LSU or St. Bonaventure has the potential to pull off the upset. Florida State would be a tough matchup in the Sweet 16. Alabama or Texas is every bit as good as a Michigan team that almost certainly won’t have Isaiah Livers.
Of course it is called March Madness for a reason. In 2018, Michigan, a 3 seed, avoided any of the other top five seeds in its region to reach the Final Four. The Wolverines played a 7 seed in the Sweet 16 and a 9 seed in the Elite Eight.
Whatever the path, Michigan’s goal is not simply to reach the Final Four. It’s to win the whole thing.
More Michigan basketball content:
Juwan Howard has ‘unfinished business’ in NCAA Tournament
Will Michigan, other top Big Ten team end league’s long national title drought?
Motivated Michigan heads to Big Ten Tournament with plans to stay in Indianapolis until April
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March 17, 2021 at 06:00PM
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Michigan’s path to Final Four in East Region - MLive.com
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