At most, two games remain in the 2021 baseball season. The Atlanta Braves hold a 3-2 lead over the Houston Astros in the World Series, and will look to clinch their first championship since 1995 in Game 6 on Tuesday night. Here's how you can watch Game 6 at Minute Maid Park.
This World Series has given us a little of everything. Historic leadoff and back-to-back home runs, a near no-hitter, stolen bases and free tacos, and one big blown first-inning lead. There is almost no chance Game 6 (and Game 7?) will pass without something crazy and unpredictable happening.
With that in mind, here are four X-factors that will determine whether the Braves walk away as World Series champions on Tuesday, or whether we get a decisive Game 7 on Wednesday.
1. Fried's adjustment
Game 2 was not a truly horrible start for Max Fried, but it wasn't good. He gave up a first-inning run on a double and two fly balls (it happens), then got ground ball bombed in the four-run second inning. It included a ground ball single against the shift, an infield single, and a ground ball through the left side that Eddie Rosario threw to no one in particular. Some bad breaks there.
"Obviously, I'm not happy about it," Fried said following Game 2. "Playoffs is a big momentum game. You got to do everything you can to keep the crooked number off the scoreboard. At the end of the day, they put up four runs in that inning. You need to do better next time, just making pitches, getting out of it."
Ultimately, six runs in five innings is bad, though Fried did settle down following that four-run second inning, and chew up innings to spare the bullpen. That said, a repeat of that Game 2 performance in Game 6 would all but guarantee a Game 7 on Wednesday. The Braves need Fried to maybe not dominant, but at least keep them in the game until they can turn it over to the bullpen.
In Game 2, Fried adjusted his pitch mix following that four-run second inning, and essentially shelved his fastballs (four-seamer and sinker), and went heavy on sliders and curveballs. He retired 10 in a row at one point with that approach. Fried normally uses his fastballs as show-me pitches and gets hitters out with his breaking balls. In Game 2, he went really heavy on breaking balls late.
"They were ready for the fastball. Probably could have put it in some better spots, maybe elevated a little bit better," Fried said after Game 2. "For me, my fastball is not something I'm looking to get swing and misses a ton on. It's more of a ground ball pitch for me. Sometimes they get it when I'm able to elevate and change speeds, but it wasn't great swing-and-miss pitching tonight."
Throwing 80-90 percent breaking balls like Fried did in the middle innings of Game 2 is not something a pitcher can do long-term. You'll ruin your arm quick that way. In one single game though, particularly when you're one win away from a World Series title, it's easier to pull off. Just leave it all out there Tuesday and then you have an entire offseason to rest, recover, and celebrate.
Fried's slider and curveball are his two best pitches -- they are truly elite breaking balls -- and given the success he had with the breaking ball heavy approach after the second inning in Game 2, it's worth sticking with that adjustment in Game 6. Ambush the Astros with sliders and curveballs, and force them to hit pitches with wrinkles rather than something straight.
"It's just sticking with your strengths, pitching my game, and really just trusting what we see with our eyes," Fried said Monday when asked whether something clicked after the second inning in Game 2. "We're going to make adjustments. At this time of year, it's about just getting outs. So whatever we can do to get outs is what the plan of attack is going to be."
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2. Garcia on short rest
After using José Urquidy for an inning in relief in Game 5, the Astros will give the ball to rookie righty Luis Garcia on short rest in Game 6. He labored in Game 3, allowing just one run but walking four batters in 3 1/3 innings, and he's also nursing a sore knee. Garcia has never started on short rest, and in fact he had extra rest going into his previous four starts this postseason.
"I don't know. It depends where we are in the lineup," Astros manager Dusty Baker said Monday when asked how much he thinks he can get out of Garcia in Game 6. "He's not our only option. We have (Jake) Odorizzi. We could come back with Urquidy because [Game 5] was his throw day, but I'd rather not. So we've got a full bullpen."
Despite the achy knee -- Garcia had to exit ALCS Game 2 in the second inning because of the knee, remember -- Garcia has had his best fastball of the year the last two starts. He's thrown his nine fastest and 14 of his 16 fastest pitches of the season in his last two starts. Going from sitting 92-94 mph to sitting closer to 96 mph and touching 98 mph is a considerable difference.
The obvious question now is will Garcia have that same fastball on short rest in Game 6? Postseason and World Series adrenaline is a hell of a thing. Soon-to-be 38-year-old Charlie Morton threw his fastest pitch (and three of his five fastest pitches) of the year in the postseason. It's not just Garcia who's shown a velocity uptick this month. But can he sustain that on three days rest?
"Nothing changed. I just had to like do things more quick, I can say that," Garcia said Monday when asked whether he changed his between-starts routine now that he's going on short rest. "But nothing has changed. I just want to do my thing and be prepared for (Game 6) ... I'm just going to try to do my best job that I can do and help the team."
Generally speaking, when a pitcher is on short rest, the fatigue shows up later in his start. Pitchers on short rest don't necessarily come out with less velocity early in the game. They usually hit a wall earlier, perhaps after 70-75 pitches rather than 100 pitches. The danger zone is not the first inning. It's the third and fourth and fifth innings when fatigue really starts to become an issue.
Baker has been around a long time and he knows this, plus Game 6 is a win-or-go-home situation for the Astros, so Garcia will have a short leash and the bullpen will be on alert right from first pitch. Getting five innings from Garcia on short rest would be a great outcome. That said, even three good innings would qualify as a success. Pitching on short rest this late in the year is grueling.
"We think that he's the best for the job," Baker said Monday about Garcia starting on short rest. "We realize that he has a short leash, but then everybody out there has a short leash and operating on low rest or not full rest."
3. Return of the DH
Chances are Game 5 was the last game without the designated hitter in baseball history. The collective bargaining agreement is up Dec. 1 and the new agreement is expected to implement the universal DH. If it happens, Zack Greinke's line-drive single (as a pinch-hitter!) in Game 5 could go down as the last hit by a pitcher in the World Series.
Now that World Series is returning to the American League ballpark, the DH is back, and I think that's better news for the Braves than the Astros. The Astros put Yordan Alvarez in left field in Games 3-5 because what were they supposed to do, keep him on the bench? No chance. Chas McCormick and Jose Siri rode the pine instead. Now one of those two will be in the lineup in Game 6.
"I've thought about it, but I haven't really, really decided exactly what I'm going to do," Baker said Monday when asked whether Siri or McCormick will be in center field (with Alvarez at DH) in Game 6. "It depends who I think is the best to hit free, the best that we need outfield coverage, what we need for energy, who's kind of been hot, who's been cold ... Like my dad used to tell me, some things you've got to sleep on. So I'll try to sleep on it."
For the Braves, the DH allows them to put all four outfielders in the starting lineup. Joc Pederson sat in Games 3 and 5, and Jorge Soler sat in Game 4. Now they both can be in the lineup alongside Rosario and Adam Duvall, putting Atlanta at full strength. Simply put, the Braves having all four outfielders in the lineup will help more than the Astros adding McCormick or Siri to their lineup.
4. Bullpen fatigue
The Astros and Braves will both play their 178th game of the season in Game 6. It is a long, long season, and both bullpens have worked especially hard this month. Atlanta relievers have thrown 55 percent of the team's innings this postseason. For the Astros, it's 58 percent, and doesn't that feel low? Feels like every Houston starter has bowed out in the second or third inning this October.
"We have a well-rested bullpen," Baker said prior to Game 6, downplaying the bullpen's workload. "(Cristian) Javier. After him, we have a well-rested Odorizzi. Well-rested (Blake) Taylor. Semi-rested (Brooks) Raley. Semi-rested the rest of the bullpen probably, other than (Kendall) Graveman, then we'll see how he feels. A pretty well-rested now (Ryan) Pressly. So there could be full bullpen, and then we'll worry about Game 7 on Wednesday."
Both bullpens are fatigued and I think we saw fatigue become an issue in Game 5, when the typically excellent AJ Minter coughed up three runs in an inning, including being unable to put away the light-hitting Martin Maldonado with the bases loaded. Luke Jackson, Phil Maton, Tyler Matzek, Will Smith, and Ryne Stanek have all appeared in at least 10 of their team's 15 games this postseason. They have a full season's workload on their arms and they've been worked even harder this month.
The off-day Monday will help, but even then Game 6 would be three appearances in five days for Graveman, Jackson, Matzek, Minter, Smith, and Yimi García. It would be three appearances in four days for Maton and Chris Martin. It would be four appearances in five days for Stanek. Game 6 could very well come down to a reliever entering the game, and getting lit up because he's seven months into his season and gassed. Such is life when you play deep into the World Series.
"Everybody that's in the World Series right now is gassed. Everybody. Both teams, all the players," Braves manager Brian Snitker said Monday. "It's been a long year, but I feel really good with where our club is. I feel really good with where the bullpen guys are. Some of these guys have had two days off and at the most two more games to play. I think they're in good shape. I admire the heck out of our bullpen because of what these guys have done."
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World Series Game 6: Four X-factors for Astros vs. Braves, including Max Fried's adjustment and DH's return - CBS Sports
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