,With a hurricane approaching his new home state and half of his first season as Astros manager complete, Dusty Baker offered an apt slogan for 2020 that extends beyond baseball.
“We held on,” Baker said after Tuesday’s doubleheader against the Angels.
“I don’t think any team was hit with injuries or the virus to key players like we were hit, but these guys didn’t use it as an excuse or anything. They just played.”
The Astros ended their first half at 17-14. They’ve lost four of six extra-inning games and blown seven saves. Justin Verlander, Roberto Osuna, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman reside on the injured list. Jose Altuve and George Springer each endured a miserable start to his season. The bullpen is held together by a bunch of rookies still learning the dos and don’ts of big league baseball. Nine pitchers have made their major league debuts during this season.
Yet according to FanGraphs, Houston holds a 97.1 percent chance to make the expanded eight-team American League playoff field. Oakland entered Wednesday’s games with a four-game lead over the Astros in the AL West.
The Astros and A’s are scheduled to start a three-game series at Minute Maid Park on Friday. Houston does not own a win against a team currently at or above .500. Of its next 29 games, though, just nine are against teams currently with winning records. A postseason spot seems secure, but the Astros must demonstrate they can defeat good teams before the postseason arrives.
Here are four questions the team must answer during the final 29 games of the 2020 season.
Can George Springer and Jose Altuve author turnarounds?
Houston is scoring 5.35 runs per game. Just three major league lineups had a better clip heading into Wednesday. Still, the Astros’ lineup is lacking its usual power and length. Ascribe some of that to Alvarez’s season-ending injury and Bregman’s absence.
The Astros had a .748 team OPS after Tuesday’s games. The league average is .738. None of their everyday starters has an OPS over .880. Four players ended last season with a .900 OPS or higher. Two — Alvarez and Bregman — are hurt. Altuve and Springer are simply absent.
For the Astros to accomplish anything in the postseason, Springer and Altuve must emerge from their slumps. Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa and Kyle Tucker are carrying the club offensively but need support from the two superstars atop the order.
Altuve’s struggles are mystifying. He appeared to awaken during the team’s five-game road trip against the Rockies and Padres but is now back in a 1-for-13 rut. His OPS is down to .593, and his batting average is barely above .200. Occasional fielding and baserunning miscues only add to his misery.
Baker has tried almost everything, even moving him down in the order to seventh at Altuve’s request. The three-time batting champion is back hitting second now, but he’s chasing pitches out of the strike zone and not making contact when he does.
Altuve has long been regarded as someone with advanced bat control who can make contact with a pitch thrown just about anywhere. His career batting average on balls in play is .335. This season, it’s .237.
Springer can at least attribute some of his anemia to injuries. He has battled a sore right wrist since making a diving catch on Aug. 6. He was struck in the left elbow by a 95 mph fastball Monday and did not play during Tuesday’s doubleheader.
Springer’s .373 slugging percentage is more than 100 points lower than his career average. In 49 plate appearances since his wrist injury, Springer has just three extra-base hits. His batting average is .193.
How does third base look without Alex Bregman?
Houston is “hoping” Bregman will miss three weeks with a strained right hamstring, general manager James Click said last weekend. Neither Click nor Bregman has specified the severity of the strain, but Bregman has battled right hamstring issues before.
Assuming he misses precisely three weeks, Bregman would return for the final 2½ weeks of the regular season. Compensating for him in the interim seems like an impossible task, but the Astros must discover a way.
Aledmys Diaz’s return from a groin strain could alleviate some of the concern, but his progress is slow. Diaz suffered the injury on opening day and has been at the team’s alternate training site for two weeks playing intrasquad games.
Without Diaz, Baker has shown great faith in switch-hitter Abraham Toro but received little production in return. Though he struck an opposite-field home run in Tuesday night’s loss to the Angels, Toro is slashing just .143/.213/.321 in 61 plate appearances. He’s drawn just two walks. Jack Mayfield provides a sure hand at third base but not much at the plate.
To inject more offense, Baker could consider starting Gurriel at third base and allowing Taylor Jones everyday time at first. Jones is not a proven commodity but poses more of an extra-base threat. Though he’s a righthanded hitter, Jones feasted against southpaws during the 2019 minor league season, slugging .625 and posting a 1.046 OPS in 120 at-bats.
The Astros need a longer look at Jones, too, given the looming offseason. Gurriel is a pending free agent, and although he’s reiterated a desire to return, it is not a guarantee. Jones is the team’s only semblance of first-base depth above the lower minor leagues.
Can the bullpen keep this together, or will James Click bolster it?
Seven Astros relievers teamed to issue six walks during Tuesday night’s 12-5 seven-inning loss to the Angels. Afterward, a clearly frustrated Baker proclaimed his club “must lead the world” in walks.
Indeed, Baker’s bullpen leads the majors with 5.43 walks per nine innings. Somewhat amazingly, its ERA is just 4.40. Texas Rangers relievers are walking 5.37 per nine innings and have a 4.95 ERA. The Seattle Mariners manage 5.14 walks per nine with a 5.52 ERA out of the bullpen.
Suffice it to say, the Astros’ bullpen success is unsustainable. Rookies have overperformed and secured crucial outs — and that must be commended — but the entire relief corps is constantly walking a dangerous line of disaster. Opponents have a .321 batting average on balls in play against them.
No man personifies this bullpen better than Andre Scrubb, a righthander who had not thrown above Class AA before this season. The Astros acquired him from the Dodgers for Tyler White last July. Scrubb has a 0.69 ERA in his first 13 major league innings and has ascended Baker’s bullpen pecking order. He also has walked 13 batters during those 13 innings.
Scrubb, Brooks Raley, Blake Taylor, Enoli Paredes and Ryan Pressly seem to be Baker’s most trusted relievers. Taylor and Paredes combined for 11⅓ innings above Class AA before this season. Raley spent most of his last five years pitching in Korea.
Pressly appeared nowhere near his 2019 All-Star form through his first 10 appearances. He’s allowed 12 hits in 8⅔ innings and isn’t inducing the sort of swing-and-miss numbers that make him lethal.
Click could bolster the bullpen by the Aug. 31 trade deadline. No area of the team appears to need external help more. But if Chris Devenski, Brad Peacock and Jose Urquidy return in short order, might Click consider them the only reinforcements the club needs?
Is Framber Valdez for real?
Rookie relievers notwithstanding, no Astro has been more revolutionary than Framber Valdez, the once-erratic southpaw who appears to have finally harnessed some control.
Valdez’s 2.35 ERA is fifth among qualified American League starters. Zack Grienke’s 2.29 mark is fourth. The two men form a formidable top of Houston’s starting rotation in Verlander’s absence. Greinke’s excellence is no surprise. For Valdez, it’s the culmination of a circuitous career.
Valdez entered 2020 in a fight for the team’s fifth rotation spot. His maturity and composure were question marks during his first two major league seasons. Innings would spiral out of control, and walks were common. Valdez walked 68 in his first 107⅔ major league innings and posted a 1.523 WHIP.
Pitching coach Brent Strom refused to abandon hope, though, reiterating a comment Mike Trout made during the 2018 season — that Valdez had some of the best stuff on Houston’s staff.
Trout struck out twice against Valdez on Monday. The southpaw managed a career-high 11 strikeouts during the Astros’ 11-4 win — all ending on his curveball.
Thirty-two of Valdez’s 40 strikeouts this season have arrived against his high-spin curve, long considered one of the best in Houston’s organization. Better command of his two-seam fastball and more liberal use of his changeup afford Valdez more confidence than ever.
Valdez has just nine walks in 38⅓ innings. Opponents are averaging 90.4 mph exit velocities when they do make contact — somewhat concerning — but his ability to induce ground balls can extract him from most jams.
Two of Valdez’s five starts this season were against the Dodgers and A’s. He struck out 11 in 11⅓ innings while allowing four earned runs. That sort of performance against the premier teams must continue, especially for an Astros club with postseason aspirations.
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